Cake Walk and the Hellmuth-Duke Guessing Game

The online poker industry ended 2010 with a bang in what is typically a slow news week.

One story that hasn't gotten a ton of play (yet) is the abrupt departures from Cake Poker of two ranking executives, Serge Ravitch and Card Room Manager Lee Jones. Neither Jones nor Ravitch gave any concrete reason for his departure; Jones only would comment (rather ominously) on 2+2 that "management has made some strategic decisions with which I’m not comfortable". Ravitch cited "the same reasons" for his departure.

Jones was the person who most loudly sounded the alarm about the current status of payment processing while the entire industry was debating the pros and cons of the Reid poker bill a few weeks back. It's a pure hunch on my part that Cake may be moving in a payment processing direction that Jones and Ravitch are unwilling to follow.

Regardless of whether my hunch is even remotely in the ballpark, it's clear that something's rotten in the state of Cake Poker. Jones has had an exemplary career over the last decade in the online poker industry. For him to abruptly resign from Cake, followed immediately by Ravitch, is not a good sign for players at that site.

An equally intriguing story developed yesterday when Phil Hellmuth (finally!) announced his departure from UB as a sponsored player. Starting around the time of the November Nine (Nov. 9th), Phil was regularly seen not wearing his standard UB garb, but was always mum about the subject. Now it's official -- he's left UB.

Annie Duke also announced yesterday that she left UB, saying "So why am I leaving UB? In a nutshell, professional and personal growth. I’m going to explore and pursue other business opportunities on a full-time basis." She highlighted that she will remain a part of the poker industry going forward.

Lots and lots of questions here. First and foremost, did Hellmuth and Duke leave UB on their own or did UB, which is clearly going younger (and rumored to be announcing new sponsored pro Prahlad Friedman next week), gently guide them out the door?

It's hard to imagine that Duke and Hellmuth were "too expensive" for UB at this point. Hellmuth and Duke are not hard-core tournament circuit grinders. They play a full slate at the WSOP, some WPTs, and make some TV appearances. In any event the publicity that Hellmuth generates and Duke's qualities as a spokesperson probably justify the expense of each. Hellmuth, after all, garners more attention at the WSOP every year than just about any other player.

Logically I'd lean towards Hellmuth and Duke initiating the split -- and UB, which seems resigned to being a second-tier poker site, not being terribly put off by it.

Second question: where will they land?

I believe that where they land will say a lot about who is placing what bets for the new poker landscape that's going to start emerging in 2011. And although it's easy to say they'll be snatched up by PokerStars or Full Tilt, you have to ask why either would go to those sites -- and why those sites would want either player.

Would the Poker Brat fit in with the PokerStars identity? Would he want to be "just another horse in the stable" at Tilt? What does Duke give either site that they don't already have? If she were going to have gone to Tilt to join brother Howard Lederer, wouldn't it have happened by now? Duke and Hellmuth made their bets on UB in 2004. It seems pretty late in the game for them to move over to Tilt in 2011.

Many have speculated that Hellmuth will go to WSOP.com. The WSOP has been ramping up U.S. awarness of its online arm, waiting for the day that regulation arrives so that it can start offering real-money online poker to U.S. residents. Hellmuth would give that site an instantly recognizable face, one that in many ways is synonymous with WSOP after all of the air time that Hellmuth received over the last six years.

Duke also has significant ties to WSOP through her work for WSOP Academy. Her standing as one of the top female tournament players in history, along with her "celebrity tv" cross-over appeal, are good fits for WSOP. She would bring to the table what Hellmuth lacks in terms of corporate spokespersonship.

But Caesars / WSOP.com isn't the only company that's rumored to be sitting on the sidelines of the U.S. online poker market, waiting for its regulatory golden ticket to be punched. For now at least, WSOP.com may not need more than Hellmuth to hawk a product that nobody can yet buy. That could send Duke to one of those other idling companies...

Third question: what does this mean for regulated online poker in the U.S.?

Directly, it means nothing. But again, where Duke and Hellmuth land will give some guidance as to who is placing what bets for online poker in 2011. For example, if Hellmuth goes to WSOP.com, it may show that Caesars -- a party heavily involved in the back-room dealings during the recent Reid Bill saga -- is confident that U.S. online poker regulation is on the short-term horizon. Otherwise there would be little reason to bring Hellmuth on now.

Generally speaking, in business, politics and life, if you follow the money trail you find your answers. For now we'll have to wait to see what Hellmuth and Duke do next but I'll lay a good price that they don't wind up at Stars or Tilt.

Of course this is all just rampant armchair speculation from me. Take it for what it's worth. If nothing else, 2011 is shaping up to be an interesting year for online poker.